Poultry meat market development in the Russian Federation during the transition to economic independence

Abstract

The article examines the transformation processes of the poultry meat market (PMM) as one of the key agri‑food markets in the Russian Federation under the influence of economic sovereignization – from the import substitution policies of 2014 to the pursuit of technological sovereignty in the 2020s. The study examines the Russian poultry meat market over the period 2001–2025, with particular emphasis on the patterns and conditions shaping the Russian PMM during the stage of establishing independent economic development. The informational framework draws on data from Rosstat, the Ministry of Agriculture, the Agroexport Centre, and reports from the National Poultry Union. The core challenge is a structural contradiction: while physical accessibility of products has been achieved, a critical dependence on imported biological resources and processing technologies persists. The aim of the article is to assess Russia's agri‑food independence and to identify structural barriers that hinder its complete achievement, by proposing a conceptual model of the influence of sovereign development factors on market efficiency and by evaluating the degree of production‑chain localization. The methodology is grounded in a system approach, which shapes a holistic understanding of the object. This includes conducting a PEST analysis of the functioning of the Russian PMM, followed by a SWOT analysis, providing a diagnostic overview of the current situation and indicating strategic directions for action, leveraging strengths to maximize opportunities while minimizing threats. The impact of external factors was assessed by a highly qualified expert community comprising leading specialists, using a scoring scale. Factors were evaluated according to their significance (on a 1‑to‑5 scale) and probability of occurrence, allowing for the calculating an integral indicator of macro‑environmental impact. The results demonstrate a transition from the phase of crisis‑driven import substitution towards a strategy of export expansion. A hypothesis is advanced that the key driver of competitiveness lies not in market isolation, but in the establishment of closed‑loop domestic technological cycles. The findings underscore the necessity of shifting the focus of state support from quantitative targets towards the development of domestic breeding and veterinary pharmaceuticals, in order to consolidate Russia's long‑term technological leadership in global markets.