Regional differentiation and prospects for the development of alternative energy sources in the Russian Federation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.31279/REFP-2026-3-325Keywords:
regional development, differentiation, alternative energy sources, renewable energy, energy transition, criterion analysis, scenario forecastingAbstract
The article is devoted to the study of the spatial differentiation of the development of alternative energy sources in the regions of the Russian Federation, which is becoming increasingly important in the context of the structural transformation of the energy sector and the implementation of the Energy Strategy. The purpose of the study is to identify regional differences in the development of alternative energy sources and to assess the growth prospects of the energy industry. The research is based on data from the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, the Association for the Development of Renewable Energy, and the Federal State Statistics Service. The system of five criteria for a comparative assessment of the leading regions in the Russian Federation is developed in terms of the scale and capacity of generation, the volume of investments, government support, and growth potential. The conducted criteria analysis enables to identify four leading regions that form the core of the industry with a pronounced territorial specialization in a specific type of generation. The identified stable territorial specialization of the industry is formed around the southern solar-wind clusters, the Arctic wind generation zones, and the Far Eastern geothermal nodes. The scenario forecast is developed for the installed capacity of alternative energy sources until 2030. According to the baseline scenario, the total installed capacity of alternative energy sources can increase from 6.1 GW in 2024 to 18.9 GW by 2030. The paper substantiates the feasibility of a differentiated regional policy for stimulating renewable energy, taking into account the resource specifics of the territories, as well as the infrastructure and financial constraints that hinder industry growth. The results can be used for monitoring and adjusting regional renewable energy development programs, as well as for formulating investment strategies.
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